Active or passive funding strategy – Tug of war

first_img 40SHARESShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblr,James Lutter D. James (Jim) Lutter is the Senior Vice President of Trading and Operations at PMA Financial Network and PMA Securities where he oversees PMA Funding, a service of both companies … Web: pmafunding.com Details The Fed is still on course to raise interest rates 25 basis points in June. This would be the second rate increase in 2017, despite a GDP reading of .7 percent year over year, and inflation running below their stated goal of 2 percent. Other recent data points include solid job gains and a declining unemployment rate under 5 percent.Bottom line – the implied probability of a June 14th rate hike is now 100% (as of May 9, 2017).With this in consideration, what impact will a rate change have on your institutional MMA and DDA depositors? Based on your current pricing model, do you anticipate an increase, decrease or stability amongst this group of depositors?  What is the end goal; funding stability through an active model or funding volatility utilizing a passive model? These are important questions to address early on in a changing/volatile rate environment.  Your pricing strategy will predicate the level of funding stability.For example, envision pulling on a rope from both sides (tug of war). On one side, there is pricing strategy, and the other is funding stability.  Depending on how hard either side is pulled, the amount of resistance will determine your stability. In a changing rate environment, if you’re experiencing decay, (whether rapid or persistent) you’re out of equilibrium in your pricing.Although the FOMC meeting is next month, market based rates have continued to ramp up in anticipation of this rate hike.  The greater the probability the Fed will increase rates, the greater the impact it will have on other fixed income investments.  The below graphic illustrates the spread differential of one month LIBOR to Fed Funds. Investments such as overnight repo, FHLB advances, agencies, treasuries and commercial paper increase in yield leading up to the Fed increase.What does this mean to you?  Your institutional investors are actively being solicited (pulled at) by competing fixed income investments through investment advisors, broker dealers and other financial institutions.  If you are deploying a passive pricing strategy where you are in a holding pattern until after the Fed movement, then you need to assume that you’re not in equilibrium.  You will begin to experience some decay amongst a percentage of your instructional depositor base.  With each Fed modification to the overnight rate, your depositor base is continually being solicited, (pulled at) which will lead to an eventual acceleration in the decay rate.  Back to the rope example, the greater the force out of equilibrium, the greater the impact on the shift.  The rope scenario is dynamic, as is your decay rate.What is the end goal: an active or passive pricing/funding strategy?  Typically, financial institutions hold between 60 to 80 percent of the liabilities and non-duration accounts.  If one is looking to reduce reliance on institutional investors, a passive strategy may be acceptable. If not, the passive strategy may end up costing more with heightened volatility than an active market-based strategy.last_img read more

COVID-19: How the second largest province became Indonesia’s epicenter

first_imgEast Java, Indonesia’s second most populous province, surpassed Jakarta as the nation’s COVID-19 epicenter on June 26 with the highest record of confirmed cases and deaths.The province has a cumulative total of 11,482 cases, 866 deaths and 3,891 recovered cases as of Monday morning. It also has the second highest case-fatality rate (CFR) – the percentage of deaths among confirmed cases — at 7.5 percent, higher than the national CFR of 5.1 percent.East Java has recorded 1,226 deaths among patients under surveillance (PDPs) and 164 deaths among persons under observation (ODPs), two categories referring to suspected cases pending testing or test results. The provincial capital of Surabaya accounts for half of the confirmed cases and deaths in East Java.Greater Surabaya, which includes the adjacent regencies of Sidoarjo and Gresik, eased the large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) in early June, even though it implemented the measure almost three weeks after Jakarta did. It is now establishing what it deems as the “new normal”, despite the spike in new cases, its overwhelmed hospitals and expert calls for stricter measures.President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has given East Java two weeks to lower its infection rate after he visited the province on June 25.Testing capacity better, though not ‘ideal’ Joni Wahyuhadi, the curative management head of the East Java COVID-19 task force, attributed the recent spike to improved testing capacity and active tracing – echoing the central government’s arguments for the daily highs in new cases the country has been seeing most of this month.Read also: Indonesia records new daily highs in cases during transition to ‘new normal’Joni said 27 labs in the province were processing samples now and working to increase their testing capacity.Unlike Jakarta and West Java, East Java does not provide testing data on its website, but Joni said the provincial administration had tested some 53,000 people. Meanwhile, Surabaya provides swab testing data on the city’s dedicated website, but the data has not been updated since it recorded 21,472 cumulative swab tests on June 28.Epidemiologist Windhu Purnomo of Surabaya’s Airlangga University concurred that the city’s testing capacity had improved this month, but that it was “still far” from the ideal World Health Organization (WHO) standard of one test per 1,000 population per week. With a population of some 40 million people, he said that East Java should be performing 40,000 tests per week.Transmission continues, tracing ‘not easy’East Java chairman Sutrisno of the Indonesian Medical Association (IDI) said that the recent spike in cases showed that “community transmission was still occurring”. Joni also said that new cases were a possibility.Tracing and isolating contacts were thus key to stopping the virus’ spread, but the province was finding it difficult to recruit more people for its contact tracing teams due the fear of infection, said Windhu. But relying on puskesmas (community health centers) workers was not enough, he stressed.Surabaya Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa told Health Minister Terawan Agus Putranto and COVID-19 national task force chief Doni Monardo on June 24 that the tracing ratio in Surabaya was 2.8, or almost three contacts traced per confirmed case,  kompas.com reported. Neighboring Sidoarjo had a tracing rate of 3.5.”Tracing is not easy. It requires extraordinary manpower and teams,” said Joni. “Being a [contact] tracer is not easy, they’re at risk of contracting the virus, given the many asymptomatic cases […] There’s no room at all for carelessness.”He said that contact tracing should average 25 contacts per confirmed case, adding that local health agencies had been receiving help from the Indonesian Military and the police personnel in tracing contacts.Contagion fear haunts overwhelmed medicsThe IDI’s Sutrisno said that many medical workers and even administrative staffers had been infected at hospitals overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients in Greater Surabaya, as well as the nearby city of Pasuruan and Lamongan regency. This reduced not only the number of medical workers on duty, but also the quality of service in treating COVID-19 patients, he said, while ordinary patients without COVID-19 were sidelined.East Java has 99 referral hospitals for treating COVID-19 patients, as well as several emergency hospitals for treating patients with mild to no symptoms.Joni, who is also the director of East Java’s main referral hospital, the Dr. Soetomo Regional General in Surabaya, said he had “read journals” that indicated a high correlation between the number of COVID-19 patients a hospital was treating and the number of its medical workers exposed to the virus, even if they were following the health protocols.He said the province’s hospitals were full, although some still had space for patients with mild to no symptoms. Around 20 patients had to wait in line for a bed at Soetomo hospital’s emergency room on Sunday, said Joni, highlighting the need for patients to be distributed across hospitals in the region.As of last Friday, nine of Soetomo hospital’s resident doctors were being treated for COVID-19, including one who was admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), said Joni.Early this month, an internal medicine resident at the hospital died after contracting the virus. At least 11 doctors in East Java have died of the virus.The IDI Indonesia’s records show that 76 doctors in East Java, excluding Surabaya, had contracted the virus. Sutrisno said IDI’s East Java office was still gathering data on infected doctors in Surabaya, as it believed that the number could be “much higher”.People neglecting protocols amid ‘absent enforcement’During Jokowi;s East Java visit, the President expressed surprise on learning that 70 percent of the province’s residents were not wearing masks.The data allegedly came from an online survey the Airlangga public health alumni association conducted in late May to evaluate the PSBB implementation in the region. The survey results revealed low compliance in wearing masks and maintaining physical distancing in public spaces, including places of worship and traditional markets.Experts said that mudik (exodus) and lax movement restrictions had helped the virus to spread. East Java recorded 460,000 mudik travelers between March 16 and May 22 ahead of Idul Fitri on May 24-25.They also said that the PSBB had been ineffective in reducing transmission, given “the absence of” enforcement and sanctions against violators, and warned that the disease would continue to spread, now that people were resuming their daily activities.”This is a critical [point in the] crisis, we’re running against time. We can’t wait months or years for people to become [self-aware],” said Windhu.Topics :last_img read more

What the 2020 Winter Classic meant to the NHL, Dallas and the southern hockey fan

first_imgSome fans bristled when the league announced an outdoor hockey game in the South, but southern hockey fans are used to it.Winter Classic: 10 things to know about this year’s gameI grew up in the South — and I am proud of that. I also grew up a huge hockey fan when many of my friends were not. When I went to college, I got many awry looks any time professors and classmates asked what I wanted to do for a living and I responded, “I would like to work in hockey media.”This isn’t their fault. They’re not used to that. It just doesn’t happen. Lakes and ponds in Louisiana don’t freeze over, either, so while it’s true that hockey is different in the South, it is still very much alive.OFFICIAL: Hockey is alive in the South.Puck drop is in about an hour and a half. 🏒 pic.twitter.com/dddSf8g2Cw— Jace Mallory (@MalloryJace) January 1, 2020″Are you sure you want to do hockey?” was the first question one professor asked me following my graduation ceremony. “Yes,” was my answer, plain and simple. Why? Because there is an overlooked pool of passionate hockey fans in the South and I’ve never met a person who watched a live game and was not invested.So I made it a personal goal of mine to try and bring some of that northern flair for the winter sport to the depths of down south. Daunting a task as it may be, hockey media was the outlet I chose to work in, and the NHL surely recognizes the same untapped potential, which drove them to chose Dallas as the host for the 2020 Winter Classic.Even some players don’t have the same expectations for southern teams as they do for northern ones. Stars alternate captain Tyler Seguin, who was traded to Dallas by Boston in 2013, admits he didn’t know what to expect.”I expected cowboy hats and horses running around and everything, the typical stuff,” Seguin said on Tuesday. “But the people we have here, the fan base we have here, I think the NHL saw a bit of it at the NHL draft (in 2018) and liked what they saw and now we’re here for this game and it’s going to be a good day.”MORE: 10 things to do in Dallas during the Winter ClassicTyler Seguin on coming to Dallas and not knowing what to expect.The Stars and Predators both making their first outdoor NHL game debut at the #WinterClassic. @sportingnewsca pic.twitter.com/BFNAINWTfH— Jace Mallory (@MalloryJace) January 1, 2020But Seguin wasn’t the only player hesitant about hockey in Dallas. Recently inducted Hall of Famer Sergei Zubov has outwardly admitted that he didn’t want to be traded to Dallas when the Penguins dealt him in 1996. But once here, a Stanley Cup and many great years of hard-fought hockey later, he was forever enshrined in Toronto.There is a stigma that true hockey fan bases do not — or barely — exist in the South, but that stigma is fading.NHL commissioner Gary Bettman stated that more Predators fans were in attendance at the Cotton Bowl than could fit in their hometown Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, which has a capacity of 20,000. So not only are there legitimate fan bases for these southern teams, but dedicated ones as well.”First of all, how awesome is that?” Predators head coach Peter Laviolette said about the number of fans expected at Cotton Bowl Stadium. “To have that many fans and have it sell out the way it did down here in Texas … it says a lot, I think, about the growth of the sport, in general, to be in Texas against a team in Nashville and close to 90,000 people that want to watch a hockey game outdoors is awesome so we’re really excited about that.”MORE: History of Cotton Bowl Stadium, NHL Winter Classic gamesPeter Laviolette discussing the expected crowd at the Cotton Bowl for the #WinterClassic. Over 20,000 fans are expected from Nashville alone. @sportingnewsca pic.twitter.com/LsaS6gTko1— Jace Mallory (@MalloryJace) January 1, 2020″It’s awesome to see how the fans have responded to it with all of the ticket sales and jersey sales,” Stars forward Joe Pavelski said of the Winter Classic being in Dallas. “It’s been a tremendous fan base since I got here and it’s going to carry over, I think, into [the Winter Classic] game.”When Dallas hosted the 2018 NHL draft, it gave the city and all of its hockey fans their first opportunity to showcase how real their passion for the fastest game on ice truly is in Texas. Then, holding true to “everything’s bigger in Texas,” they went all out with Winter Classic festivities that included but were not limited to Texas State Fair rides, pig races, fried treats and hockey-themed games just outside Cotton Bowl Stadium for fans of all ages. DALLAS — Ponds don’t typically freeze over in Dallas, but on Wednesday at the Cotton Bowl, one man-made pond did.The NHL brought the league’s most prestigious regular-season competition to the Lone Star State, making it the southernmost regular-season outdoor hockey game in NHL history — and it did not disappoint. Officially 85,630 fans were in attendance to see the Dallas Stars defeat the Nashville Predators in dramatic fashion on New Year’s Day, making it the second-most attended NHL game in history (behind the 2014 Winter Classic). Ultimately, the event was a major hit and successfully kicked off the new decade in impressive fashion.Still, the challenge exists. Even after the ice melts and the grass is uncovered, the media leaves and the fans retire to their homes, hopefully, an impression has been made — one of resiliency and one of passion.For southern hockey fans, this was more than a game. This was a statement that we are here, we are loud and we are proud. Whether hailing from Dallas, Nashville or any of the other southern cities that the NHL calls home for one of its 31 franchises, remember not to overlook our passion.last_img read more